Ok just a quick few tips. Form is done, but time is against me detailing why these horses have been tipped. However, a full preview of the Group One races has been done and is at the bottom of the post!
2.4. Flying Aurora
3.2. More Radiant
6.2. Craftiness – second best of the day.
9.10. Najoom – third best of the day.
Group One races
The Doomben Cup
This is a great race this year with the talented Zabeel gelding Leebaz back in form, and entire Pornichet really starting to hit his straps. More than anything, the track should be relatively dry which is something we have not seen for a little while. Traditionally the winner of this race has won, placed or run 4th in their previous start. In fact the stat is something like 29 of the last 30 winners have run no worse than 4th in their lead-up run to the Doomben Cup. This stat alone should rule out 1. Green Moon, 3. Moriarty, 4. Hawkspur, 6. Weary, 9. Escado, 12. Additive Habit, and 13. Silent Achiever. I am prepared to put the pen through these based on the abovementioned stat.
That leaves 2. Foreteller, 5. Banca Mo, 7. Leebaz, 8. I’m Imposing, 10. Pornichet, 11. Hopfgarten , 14. Gypsy Diamond, and 15. Epingle. This is where we will be looking and even still we can trim back the field further in regards to winning chances. Foreteller in not going well enough to win a Group One race at this stage so he is out. Banca Mo needs a heavy track and at WFA he surely is out classed. I’m Imposing is in great form although he doesn’t seem to be a horse that fits the profile of a Group One winner especially at a track he has never raced at. Hopfgarten got spanked by Pornichet last week and over a similar trip on Saturday he is meets the former French entire 2kg worse at the weights. And Epingle found the best part of the track at the Gold Coast to fluke one as the roughie of the field.
So where to look for the winner? Leebaz will be in front of Pornichet and really, these two look far and away the best chances. Pornichet could be anything and Leebaz clearly likes QLD. The only other one in my humble opinion is Gypsy Diamond. This mare is hard to catch, but she clearly has hit form since she arrived in QLD.
Winner – 7. Leebaz. He will be in-front rounding the turn, and these horses often hold on at Doomben. Hollindale Stakes winners also have a terrific record in the Doomben Cup.
Hardest to beat – 10. Pornichet. This entire is a Cox Plate horse in the making. If the track was wet, he would be close to a certainly.
Best long shot – 14. Gypsy Diamond. You know what they say about a mare in form! They generally stay in form.
The BTC Cup
Like the Doomben Cup, the two favourites in this race look far and away the best chances. However in this race, there is also a nice gelding that is at a ridiculous price. Cape Kidnappers is currently $51 and leaving out one race where he dumped his rider at the start, he has only ever missed a place once. He has never missed a place this track and trip or at the 1200m anywhere. He is an exceptional each way chance. However, most of the attention needs to be concentrated on Srikandi and Our Boy Malachi. For mine, Srikandi is a slight risk. She found the fast lane at the Gold Coast in a race that is nowhere near as tough as this race. However, like Our Boy Malachi, Srikandi is a winner. She, on a great majority of the time finishes in-front of her rivals. As does the gelding! Both these super horses have plenty of tricks; they both can win from up the front or just off the speed and the difference in barriers (Srikandi is a little wide) is the only reason the Rockhampton gelding is getting the nod.
Winner – 8. Our Boy Malachi. He has won 17 of 19 so while some might think is he due to lose, other like me only see the picket fence!
Hardest to beat – 15. Srikandi. Risk her this week then unleash on her in the 10,000 the Stradbroke and maybe even the Tiara.
Best longshot – 10. Cape Kidnappers. The best 50-1 chance I think I have ever seen.
The South Australian Derby
This race looks a touch easier than the two Group One events in Brisbane. 16. Delicacy has already proven she can beat the boys in a Derby (she won the WA Derby two starts ago) so she seem to not have any question mark around her whatsoever. The filly’s win in the SA Oaks was breathtaking and this could be an easier race. Delicacy is the best of the day anywhere in Australia.
Winner – 16. Delicacy. The best horse in the field by a mile and we can get $2.50. Snap it up!
Hardest to beat – 3. Magicool. Forget the last run. This gelding got no luck at all and he basically gave up. Should he get clear running he will give the favourite some kind of race.
Best long shot – 6. Allergic. Well placed and in good form, but he simply may not be good enough. One for the multiples perhaps.
Good luck and stay tuned.