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This week’s wisdom is based on the punt and it has to do with the Caulfield Cup. Over the last five years, the first four in the Caulfield Cup has average $20,000. My advice is to box about 7 horses and try and get 5%. Just choose the six or seven (or 8) that you like, box them all in a first four for how ever much you can afford, and hope a 50-1 chance wins. The eight that A Turf Fascination will be boxing this year are 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 19. This is a good system and can prove very profitable for only a mid sized investment. Getting a first four is easier than getting a quaddie, because you only have to get one winner and three losers!
Caulfield only and a crack at every race.
Can’t separate 2. Azkadella and 3. Berimbau. The former is $2.50 and the later is 7.50. One is in tremendous form (the 2) and the other was a really nice to-year-old that looks to have made the step to three-year-old company. Back the 2 to win and the 3 each way.
In this race the thinking is around whether 3. Liberation will go straight or not. He better because if he does not he might get a couple of pretty substantial parts of his anatomy removed. He is worth the gamble at $10. Also include 1. Tudor who is backing up after a run on Wednesday and 13. Rib Eye who is at 50-1. The other good chance is 6. Careless. Back 3 and 6 to win (both close to $10) and 1 and 13 each way. It is a lot of bets, but if anyone of the four win it is profit. The top selection is Liberation.
The major tip here is 3. Maastricht. She looks hard to beat. For the multiples include 8. Set Square, 11. Tears of Joy and even the 1 and the 2 if you are having a big tri or something.
No too sure what to do here. The main three are 1. Kumaon, 2. Merion and 13. Crafty. The top weight looks a Derby horse and might be too slow for the 2000m. The 2 is an idoit that does not run straight and the 13 is a filly against the boys. However if one is required (you don’t have to bet in every race!) take the 13 each way.
Two here both at good odds. 13. Ryker can be forgiven for his last start failure due to the $16 that is on offer for him. He will run well in this then be hard to beat in the Emirates. Also 8. Generalife looks set to run well. He is pretty honest and $6 allows us to take the each way.
Either 4. Catkins or 3. Sweet Idea will win this race. Not exactly sure which one will salute but very confident it will be one of them. Catkins perhaps because she is a grey and in the Hall of Fame.
In a race full of goats, perhaps the best option is to back the two that are at least internationals. They might not be goats whereas the rest of the field have proved themselves to be very slow. 2. Contributer and 12. Noble Protector are the imports and if they are even half decent then they will be able to beat this field. Well worth the risk.
7. Shamal Wind is the obvious choice and she deserves to be backed to win. But don’t leave out old 1. Bel Sprinter. He flies fresh and his recent trial was the best of his career. He is a Group One winner at this trip and that form would see him again figure. Give him some thought at $9 but if he does not run in the top three, never mention his name again!
This is the Caulfield Cup and I have never been less confident in a major race. I simply don’t know! The favourite has never been to Caulfield and was beaten at her only try at 2400m, and who knows what to make of all the Waller horses. So here is the advice… back the two Japanese horses 1. Admire Rakti and 5. Bande while having a little saver on 6. The Offer. The Japanese horses are the best stayers in the race. If they have traveled well and are happy then they will take a power of beating. But those are all big ‘ifs.’ Here is the top 8 2014 Caulfield Cup Countdown…
So news just in… Bande has been scratched. Bugger.
7th – Lucia Valentina. Just not too sure she is that good.
6th – 12. Dear Demi. I hate this horse but she is going well.
5th – 9. Junoob. He is going really well.
4th – 6. The Offer. He loves a wet track but with 28 degrees forecast, it looks like he won’t get conditions to suit.
3th – 16. Rising Romance. Beat the favourite at their last meeting over 2400m.
2rd – 19. Brambles. Will be up the front and is in good form.
1st – 1. Admire Rakti. He will be flying home and will give whatever is in front a huge fright. Watch this video…
Delta Blues was wide the whole trip and had zero luck and almost won. Pop Rock went like a drunk and had no idea where he was going and should have won. And by all reports, Bande and Admire Rakti makes these two look like maiden hurdlers. Yep, back the Japanese.
11. The Messina Nymph. The best of the day and she is at $10.
Good luck and stay tuned.