Two days at the Valley

Hello everyone

Wisdom

This week’s wisdom seems very obvious but needs to be said… It can’t be that hard to leave the pub, and get home without beating someone to death. I have done it three or four times a week for well over ten years. Why do young men keep bashing other young men to death for no reason? We are all people. We all have the same goal and that is to go to the pub, try ya luck, then get home safely and not die of alcohol poisoning the next morning. Why do some of us need to show some male dominance and crush poor boy’s heads against the concrete pavement? All those idiots doing 10 -15 years down the river will tell you that it was not worth one second of testosterone fueled glory, when you are looking out a one foot x one foot window for 15 years. It simply can’t be that hard to get home without bashing people. How can this continue to happen? We often wonder what it must be like living in certain other places and having a 50/50 chance of being beheaded, or killed by a suicide bomber each and every day. In Australia we are creating a new kind of terrorist… the coward bomber. The wanker who needs to wreck the lives of hundreds of people known to both him and to others, for no reason at all. If someone calls you a dickhead, then just take it. They are words and they surely don’t hurt as much as a blow to the head from behind and a whack on the pavement.

Come on fellas, and I say fellas because it is a 100% male issue, we are a team. We take on the bookies as a team, we sing and act like morons at he pub as a team and we should leave the pub (unless you have left earlier for some reason be it female related or not) as a united team. There can’t be a justifiable reason to punch someone so hard that they die. It can’t be justified.

Punt

We have two big days at Moonee Valley. Here goes… an attempt on every race for the two days.

Friday

Race 1.

2. Fast ‘N’ Rocking. Just back this horse a win and you should be off to a flyer.

Race 2.

The top weight is odds on and will probably win. Either just watch on, or have a small each way or place bet on 8. Melaleula and 3. Spinderbella. Both look a little over the odds and are in reasonable form.

Race 3.

The all greys race! I back all of these horses all year and now they are in one bloody race. 7. Slate on Edge has weight relief and 3. Black Jet has good QLD form. But other than that, I have no idea!

Race 4.

3. More Radiant. This filly will be flying home and she will win a race sooner or later. Her main danger will be in front, but she can definitely make up the ground.

Race 5.

A horrible race over 955m. Maybe each way 5. Fab Fevola because he will be in front or 10. Tintagel Rocker because he is 50-1 and anything can happen in these scampers. He should be 10-1. Not sure if the 8. Cult of Isis is very appropriately named!

Race 6.

12. Arctic Song to win and 10. Leveraction and 11. Riviera Riches each way. All are in form and on the quick back up.

Race 7.

The Manikato Stakes and yep, for the absolute last time ever… 2. Lankan Rupee. He is not $1.50 now but rather $4 and if he is the best sprinter in the world then he should win. I will be backing him (insanity I tell ya!) while having a saver on my old mate 1. Buffering. The favourite Terravista is a risk. He has never ran in Victoria, at WFA, at night or against a field of this quality.

Race 8.

Two at good odds are 2. Commanding Time and 9. Kim Command. But 6. Pheidon looks close to a good thing. He is a winner this track and trip and has buckets of class on this field.

The three specials for Friday would have to be 1.2 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, 6.12. Arctic Song and 8.6. Pheidon.

Saturday

Race 1. 

This race is a mystery. Lots of un-raced horses that have not trialled either. The tip is 7. Hot Snippety. He is a winner in QLD and you always get a few extra points of value with horses trained in the sunshine state.

Race 2.

10. Miss Steele. Each way. She loves the Valley and is down in the weights.

Race 3.

1. Lumosty will probably win. Perhaps 8. Kansas Sunflower for those who don’t like odds on pops.

Race 4.

6. Greco to win. He has had one start this time in for a great win and he looks a progressive type. 5. Nicoscene each way at the $15 also looks pretty good. 2. Law is going well but is a bit of a non-winner. Greco a win, small win bet on Law and each way bet on the 5.

Race 5.

Really keen on 1. Precedence and 7. Opinion. Not sure which one will win, but pretty confident it will be one of them. Not the best edition of this race of all-time.

Race 6.

Righto… 1. Speediness and 5. Trust in a Gust can both get stuffed. I have been backing Speediness for years for very little return and have never backed the other one and it wins every week! They will probably dead heat for first, but they can do it without A Turf Fascination. Instead I will most likely waste some hard earned on 3. Akavoroun, 6. Hooked and 9. Liberty’s Choice. They are all at well and truly each way value.

Race 7.

13. Go Indy Go on top and 5. Bondeiger and 6. Duccio second and third picks. Go Indy Go will be flying home and should be in the Cox Plate.

Race 8. The Cox Plate

You can’t back them all! I have therefore narrowed it down to six, and will be backing three. The six are 2. Fawkner, 8. Criterion, 9. Silent Achiever, 10. Royal Descent, 12. Almalad and 14. Wandjina. With a heavy heart I will be risking Fawkner, Silent Achiever and Royal Descent, but they will be in the multiples and the quaddie. So here is what to do…

Have $6 a win on Criterion for a $48 return

Have $1 each way on Almalad for a $43 return for a win and a $9 return for a place

Have $1 each way on Wandjina for a $36 return for a win and an $8 return for a place.

For the last five years it has only been three and four-year-olds that have won this race. Above we have two three-year-olds and the only four-year-old (Adelaide is a four-year-old but really only a three-year-old by southern hemisphere standards). Back all three as they are all at super odds. If you only want to back one, make it Almalad.

Race 9.

This race will be a bit of an anticlimax after the Cox Plate. If you have a heap of cash, save it for Derby Day and have just a tiny bit on 4. Suavito and 8. Scratchy Bottom.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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The ancient Cox Plate

aturffascination:

A quick reblog before we get into the Cox Plate tips. Enjoy

Originally posted on A Turf Fascination:

Hello everyone.

Today we will have a look at the double winners of the Cox Plate in the era before the big prize money increase in 1972. They are Phar Lap, Young Idea, Tranquil Star, Flight, Hydrogen and Tobin Bronze. Just to demonstrate the quality of the majority of these, here are some stats.

Phar Lap is of course Phar Lap. Probably most people’s choice as the best to race in Australia.

Tranquil Star is listed in the majority or experts list of the top 5 mares to ever run in Australia. She had 111 starts! That is 89 more than Black Caviar has currently had!

Flight is too listed in the top 5 best mares of all time list. She pushed Bernborough at WFA on at least 5 occassions

Tobin Bronze was a gun handicapper and WFA horse that could win at any distance, with any weight on any…

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Geelong Cup Day 2014

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It is Geelong Cup day again and the field this year is full of horses looking to get into the Melbourne Cup. In reality, the race has really dropped off over the last few years. But a $5 winner is a $5 winner. It does not matter if the horses has come from France and is worth $5 million bucks right?

Sydney first. Here is the mail for Randwick Wednesday 22 October.

1.2. Confederate. A real talent that only has to beat three rivals. He is worth a small win bet.

4.5. Vittelo. Drops significantly in weight from a last start second. This field is far inferior and with even luck up the front he will be hard to run down.

5.2. Marmelo. In form and on a quick backup. That is what I look for.

7.3. Amanpour. This mare should have been in the Caulfield Cup. She just did not come up quickly enough and now will be aimed at some easier races. She has a tonne of class and is the best for the day.

Geelong

2.3. Solsay. A weak race and at least this horse is fit. This is a drop in grade and not a significant rise in weights. Worth an each way ticket.

3.11. Navajo Run. Another in form on a quick backup. Trainer in a bit of form as well. Each way hope.

5.9. Don Doremo. Favourite but looks like the horse with the most ability in the race. Luck in running will be required but looks a good winning chance.

6.2. Miracle the Second. Meets last start conquer slightly better at the weights and will be suited by the extra distance. Well over the odds at $8.

6.7. Turbo Street. Back this one too in this race each way.

7.5. More Than Sacred. A plodder in a race of plodders, but he does have a turn of foot when asked. Look for him launching late.

7.4. Zanbagh. Small win bet on this girl also.

8.2. Griante. Beat a good field last start and this is a much weaker race. Look out also for River Delta. She just might be a freak.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

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The Caulfield Cup back up

Hello everyone

I could brag about tipping the quaddie one out yesterday, but rather than crow, we might observe a little bit of history. But with thousands of views of A Turf Fascination yesterday, hopefully everybody got something out of the day.

Today we will have a quick look at the 1983 Cox Plate. The race was won by a very underrated galloper named Strawberry Road.

During his four-year-old season, Strawberry Road who had won the Rosehill Guineas and the AJC Derby, completed a very rare treble. The stallion resumed with a breathtaking victory in the now Group One 1200m Manikato Stakes. This race is now run and won on Cox Plate eve, so it is unlikely that a horse will ever complete this double again. After winning the Manikato, Strawberry Road won the 1600m Feehan at Moonee Valley. Progressing from a Group One 1200m to a Group Two 1600m is a great feat, but then to also go on to win the Cox Plate is extraordinary. The Moonee Valley racing club still has just the three major races, and for one horse to win them all in one season is ridiculous. Here is the Cox Plate win, have a look how easily Strawberry Road eases into contention and then breaks away. This is how you would like them to win all the time!

After the Cox Plate win, story of Strawberry Road truly developed in a story of international triumph. The bay colt that began his career in Queensland raced on to fame and fortune in six countries. Before his Cox  Plate win, he was named the Queensland Horse of the Year for 1982-83, then after his Plate win was named Australian Horse of the Year in 1983. Abroad the stallion was the Champion Older Horse in Germany in 1984 and represented the United States in the 1984 Japan Cup.

Strawberry Road was bred in New South Wales by J. Pantos and G. Georgopoulos and had a number of owners in a racing career that spanned six seasons. He was a multi-million dollar winner of 17 races from 1100 metres to 2500 metres. His Group 1 victories were the A.J.C. Derby, M.V.R.C. Cox Plate, Queensland Derby and Rosehill Guineas in Australia, and the French Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the German Grosser Preis von Baden. He was also placed at this highest level of racing in the USA Breeders’ Cup Turf Stakes, the Santa Anita Luis Rey Stakes, the Belmont Turf Classic and the Washington D.C. International Stakes.

Queensland trainer Doug Bougoure prepared Strawberry Road before a half share in the horse was purchased by Ray Stehr and John Singleton. The horse was transferred to Sydney trainer John Nicholls and sent to France to take on the worlds best in the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe. He finished a gallant fifth after charging to the lead at the top of the long Longchamp straight. Here is the Arc run…

Strawberry Road then commenced barnstorming raids across the Northern Hemisphere for new owner Daniel Wildenstein, competing with distinction every time he stepped out. Plans to return him to Australia for a stud career never eventuated, and he was sold to prominent US owner Allan Paulson with a view to standing him at Brookside Farm in Kentucky.

Strawberry Road transmitted his ability and will to win to his progeny and has sired more than 37 Stakes winners to the year 2005. They include six Group 1 winners and four champions. He was the third on the USA Sires Premiership in 1998. His sire sons include the successful Queensland-based stallion Admiralty (USA), and his daughters are proving to be outstanding broodmares.

It has been a while since we have seen one as good as Strawberry Road.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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The Japanese are coming

aturffascination:

Hey everyone. Bande has been scratched and The Offer is in grave doubt. Here is the updated tips

Originally posted on A Turf Fascination:

Hello everyone

Wisdom

This week’s wisdom is based on the punt and it has to do with the Caulfield Cup. Over the last five years, the first four in the Caulfield Cup has average $20,000. My advice is to box about 7 horses and try and get 5%. Just choose the six or seven (or 8) that you like, box them all in a first four for how ever much you can afford, and hope a 50-1 chance wins. The eight that A Turf Fascination will be boxing this year are 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 19. This is a good system and can prove very profitable for only a mid sized investment. Getting a first four is easier than getting a quaddie, because you only have to get one winner and three losers!

Punt

Caulfield only and a crack at every race.

Race 1.

Can’t separate 2…

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The Japanese are coming

Hello everyone

Wisdom

Before reading my wisdom, please buy my book. You just click on the picture over there and pay your $7. Easy!

This week’s wisdom is based on the punt and it has to do with the Caulfield Cup. Over the last five years, the first four in the Caulfield Cup has average $20,000. My advice is to box about 7 horses and try and get 5%. Just choose the six or seven (or 8) that you like, box them all in a first four for how ever much you can afford, and hope a 50-1 chance wins. The eight that A Turf Fascination will be boxing this year are 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 19. This is a good system and can prove very profitable for only a mid sized investment. Getting a first four is easier than getting a quaddie, because you only have to get one winner and three losers!

Punt

Caulfield only and a crack at every race.

Race 1.

Can’t separate 2. Azkadella and 3. Berimbau. The former is $2.50 and the later is 7.50. One is in tremendous form (the 2) and the other was a really nice to-year-old that looks to have made the step to three-year-old company. Back the 2 to win and the 3 each way.

Race 2.

In this race the thinking is around whether 3. Liberation will go straight or not. He better because if he does not he might get a couple of pretty substantial parts of his anatomy removed. He is worth the gamble at $10. Also include 1. Tudor who is backing up after a run on Wednesday and 13. Rib Eye who is at 50-1.  The other good chance is 6. Careless. Back 3 and 6 to win (both close to $10) and 1 and 13 each way. It is a lot of bets, but if anyone of the four win it is profit. The top selection is Liberation.

Race 3.

The major tip here is 3. Maastricht. She looks hard to beat. For the multiples include 8. Set Square, 11. Tears of Joy and even the 1 and the 2 if you are having a big tri or something.

Race 4.

No too sure what to do here. The main three are 1. Kumaon, 2. Merion and 13. Crafty. The top weight looks a Derby horse and might be too slow for the 2000m. The 2 is an idoit that does not run straight and the 13 is a filly against the boys. However if one is required (you don’t have to bet in every race!) take the 13 each way.

Race 5. 

Two here both at good odds. 13. Ryker can be forgiven for his last start failure due to the $16 that is on offer for him. He will run well in this then be hard to beat in the Emirates. Also 8. Generalife looks set to run well. He is pretty honest and $6 allows us to take the each way.

Race 6.

Either 4. Catkins or 3. Sweet Idea will win this race. Not exactly sure which one will salute but very confident it will be one of them. Catkins perhaps because she is a grey and in the Hall of Fame.

Race 7.

In a race full of goats, perhaps the best option is to back the two that are at least internationals. They might not be goats whereas the rest of the field have proved themselves to be very slow. 2. Contributer and 12. Noble Protector are the imports and if they are even half decent then they will be able to beat this field. Well worth the risk.

Race 8.

7. Shamal Wind is the obvious choice and she deserves to be backed to win. But don’t leave out old 1. Bel Sprinter. He flies fresh and his recent trial was the best of his career. He is a Group One winner at this trip and that form would see him again figure. Give him some thought at $9 but if he does not run in the top three, never mention his name again!

Race 9.

This is the Caulfield Cup and I have never been less confident in a major race. I simply don’t know! The favourite has never been to Caulfield and was beaten at her only try at 2400m, and who knows what to make of all the Waller horses. So here is the advice… back the two Japanese horses 1. Admire Rakti and 5. Bande while having a little saver on 6. The Offer. The Japanese horses are the best stayers in the race. If they have traveled well and are happy then they will take a power of beating. But those are all big ‘ifs.’ Here is the top 8 2014 Caulfield Cup Countdown…

So news just in… Bande has been scratched. Bugger.

7th – Lucia Valentina. Just not too sure she is that good.

6th – 12. Dear Demi. I hate this horse but she is going well.

5th – 9. Junoob. He is going really well.

4th – 6. The Offer. He loves a wet track but with 28 degrees forecast, it looks like he won’t get conditions to suit.

3th – 16. Rising Romance. Beat the favourite at their last meeting over 2400m.

2rd – 19. Brambles. Will be up the front and is in good form.

1st – 1. Admire Rakti. He will be flying home and will give whatever is in front a huge fright. Watch this video…

Delta Blues was wide the whole trip and had zero luck and almost won. Pop Rock went like a drunk and had no idea where he was going and should have won. And by all reports, Bande and Admire Rakti makes these two look like maiden hurdlers.  Yep, back the Japanese.

Race 10.

11. The Messina Nymph. The best of the day and she is at $10.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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A Quick piece on Rising Fast

aturffascination:

All the Caulfield Cup tips and wisdom coming first thing tomorrow morning. In the meantime enjoy a Caulfield Cup style reblog

Originally posted on A Turf Fascination:

Hello everyone

Rising Fast deserves a week of A Turf Fascination posts. But for the meantime we will just show a little piece that details the champs phenomenal spring in 1954. Enjoy…

In 1954, the promising kiwi gelding Rising Fast that was purchased for $650 resumed his career as a five-year-old in the Memsie Stakes. The gelding ran well but was unplaced; he was clearly looking for further. Rising Fast then contested WFA Feehan at Moonee Valley where he was lucky enough to win despite the race still being short of his best distance. He then was unluckily beaten in the Underwood Stakes as the 4-9 favourite ($1.44) favourite. The champ was only beaten by half a head, but people were disappointed as they always are when a short priced favourite gets beaten. However this was the last time for the preparation the bay gelding from New Zealand would lose.

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