In any thinking or mindset, Terrorism is frightening – the very wording of the institution is frightening, but it is not the only frightening thing out there. Since 9/11 two people have died in Australia due to terrorism; yes many have died overseas, but domestically the two people to die at the hands of terrorism were the poor people in the cafe in Sydney not so long ago. Since 9/11 near enough to 1000 women have died at the hands of their partner or ex-partner in the silent epidemic that is domestic violence. Terrorism needs to be stamped out and the authorities in Australia are doing a magnificent job and now both major parties in Australia have now joined forces and are trying to stamp out the drug Ice which will in turn will reduce the amount of domestic violence seen on our shores. A Turf Fascination says… well done. Women and men to a lesser degree should not be afraid when they are at home. I don’t have the answer, but rather am just very happy that the powers that be are addressing this domestic violence issue finally. What governments, that is State, Federal and Local have done to prevent terrorism has been a resounding success and it is magnificent to think those who we vote for are now trying to add the eradication of domestic violence to their success stories. Turnbull will be handed a report into the drug Ice before Melbourne Cup time and he does not seem like a bloke who will allow this stupid bloody mix of chemicals to be prevalent in the country which he leads. As a male it is hard to imagine the fear a woman feels when she is being set upon by an Ice induced partner or ex-partner. There has to be a way to make sure this scenario happens less and less and those in Canberra have taken the first steps. It is a good start, not get it done!
This is a very hard day and many of the selections are well and truly into the double figures. Giddy up!
Best of the Day – Craftiness (race 3 number 5).
It I always fraught with danger tipping Sydney horses having their first start at Caulfield. However Craftiness looks one of the rare types that are professional and consistent, not to mention honest enough to handle Caulfield at their first attempt. On good ground, Craftiness has only ever been beaten once, and when he wins, he wins by a big margin. First up he showed he was back as good as ever, and although he went down to the in-form sprinter in Australia Shiraz, he clearly lost no admirers. With just even luck, this gelding should be winning. The only reason he is not $1.80 is because of the Caulfield factor.
Last Chance Stakes #1 – Excess Knowledge (race 4 number 1).
There is no doubt this son of the great Monsun is very good, but he better start showing us exactly what he can do. He is one of those horses that eventually we will give up on and he will pop up at $18. He is not $18 this week (we will be lucky to get $4), but he has finally drawn a barrier, he has Caulfield experience and this is a very weak field. Kerrin McEvoy stays aboard and the 2400m is the type of trip he was bred to thrive at.
They Are All Good So Back A Few #1 – Jameka (race 5 number 2) and Alaskan Rose (race 5 number 8).
Jameka is a Sires’ winner, was great first up and is $10. Alaskan Rose is unbeaten, is looking for 1400m and beyond and is $10. Yes they have to beat Pasadena Girl, Miss Finland’s daughter Stay With Me as well as the very in-form Miss Gunpower but they are not without a good chance. Indeed this is a full field of very good horses, so the two bet strategy with two in double figures is not a bad ploy. If either Jameka or Alaskan Rose were in any other Fillies or Mares race, then they would be favourite. Back them both as they are both outstanding value at double figure odds.
President Frank Underwood – The Cleaner (race 7 number 4).
The best show on television is House of Cards where the President of the United States is named Fran Underwood. He is a cleaner in every sense of the word. He cleans out congress, he cleans out the journalistic ranks and he cleans himself of any blame in any debacle that he finds himself in. So why not back The Cleaner in the Underwood Stakes? We still need to see Contributor perform before we back him and Fawkner is too short. The Cleaner is going better than ever; he has barrier one, he will be in front with 200m to run and he will look the winner perhaps until the last stride if he is to be beaten. If The Cleaner was trained by John Hawkes, Lee Freedman or Gai Waterhouse he would be $3 in this field so good is his form. Because he is Vo Rouge the second, we can get $7. It is hard to see him missing a place.
Back the Two at the Top – Lucky Hussler (race 8 number 1) and Cosmic Endeavour (race 8 number 2).
The Rupert Clarke Stakes this year may well be the hardest race to tip in ever! Therefore we have landed on the class runners – the two Group 1 winners who are 1 and 2 in the weights. Lucky Hussler was good first up and he has the perfect barrier second up. Cosmic Endeavour is a Group 1 winner at 1400m beating the likes of Catkins in the process. What price would Catkins be in this race? Both horses have Caulfield experience and both looks as if they will get good runs just off the leaders and will take plenty to hold out. The best bit is that both are near enough to 20-1 and can be backed with some confidence each way.
Last Chance Stakes #2 – Zebrinz (race 9 number 12).
Like Excess Knowledge, this boy has promised so much and he is yet to deliver (this preparation). He has been storming home and this looks a swoopers race. All his runs this time in have been full of merit and should he get a crack at his rivals late in the race then he certainly has the ability to get over the line in first place. Like many of the selections today we can get double figure odds about Zebrinz, but this is his last chance.
Roll Up The Odds-On Pops – Press Statement (race 2 number 1) and Catkins (race 6 number 2).
Press Statement should just win. He is a Group 1 winner, he finished next to Exosphere first up and should have also finished next to the giant colt in the Golden Rose. Press Statement was clearly unlucky in the Golden Rose and with just even luck he should streak this field on Saturday. It does not look so cut and dry with Catkins however. But here is the good thing… the $1.50 for Press Statement (he really should just win) into the $1.70 on offer for Catkins means that you can basically get $2.50 for Catkins. All going well, after Press Statement wins, you can then take a quinella with Amanpour, Catkins and Arabian Gold. Yes this all sound easy, and Catkins won’t have it all her own way, but first up she produced maybe the best run of her life and seeing is believing.
Gai is Due – King Kinshana (race 3 number 4) and Bohemian Lily (race 3 number 5).
It has been a slightly slow state to the spring for Gai Waterhouse. But the great lady never goes long without a feature race win. She hold all the aces in the Colin Stephen Quality with the imported gelding King Kinshana and the former kiwi mare Bohemian Lily who both looking sensational winning chances. Both are weighted to win and are fit enough to be tackling the 2400m third up. Not sure which one will win so back them both.
Best in Sydney – Akavoroun (race 7 number 7).
This gelding is a Victorian horse on a hit and run mission to Sydney for the Shannon Stakes. Make no mistake… he is a very good horse. He can lead, he can trail and on Saturday he gets weight relief from what he normally carries. He can handle any track surface, and he has an imposing record. This is the easiest race he has faced for a while and he will be right there when the whips are cracking. At $7 he is well worth plenty of thought on the each way basis.
A Class Edge Perhaps? – Frespanol (race 8 number 1).
There is no doubt that this gelding has a class edge, but he has the 61.5kg to even out any advantage he has class wise. However with Koby’s claim and barrier 1, the $16 is starting to look very promising. The best horse in the race should never be discounted and this boy is at least the best performed (by far). $16 means we can have a small each way bet and just see if he is simply better than his rivals. From five first up starts, the gelding has had two wins and two places; he has had the benefit of two easy trials and after some Brisbane sun on his back, he looks all set to run well fresh.
Good luck and stay tuned.