Geelong Cup Day 2014

Hello everyone

It is Geelong Cup day again and the field this year is full of horses looking to get into the Melbourne Cup. In reality, the race has really dropped off over the last few years. But a $5 winner is a $5 winner. It does not matter if the horses has come from France and is worth $5 million bucks right?

Sydney first. Here is the mail for Randwick Wednesday 22 October.

1.2. Confederate. A real talent that only has to beat three rivals. He is worth a small win bet.

4.5. Vittelo. Drops significantly in weight from a last start second. This field is far inferior and with even luck up the front he will be hard to run down.

5.2. Marmelo. In form and on a quick backup. That is what I look for.

7.3. Amanpour. This mare should have been in the Caulfield Cup. She just did not come up quickly enough and now will be aimed at some easier races. She has a tonne of class and is the best for the day.

Geelong

2.3. Solsay. A weak race and at least this horse is fit. This is a drop in grade and not a significant rise in weights. Worth an each way ticket.

3.11. Navajo Run. Another in form on a quick backup. Trainer in a bit of form as well. Each way hope.

5.9. Don Doremo. Favourite but looks like the horse with the most ability in the race. Luck in running will be required but looks a good winning chance.

6.2. Miracle the Second. Meets last start conquer slightly better at the weights and will be suited by the extra distance. Well over the odds at $8.

6.7. Turbo Street. Back this one too in this race each way.

7.5. More Than Sacred. A plodder in a race of plodders, but he does have a turn of foot when asked. Look for him launching late.

7.4. Zanbagh. Small win bet on this girl also.

8.2. Griante. Beat a good field last start and this is a much weaker race. Look out also for River Delta. She just might be a freak.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

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The Caulfield Cup back up

Hello everyone

I could brag about tipping the quaddie one out yesterday, but rather than crow, we might observe a little bit of history. But with thousands of views of A Turf Fascination yesterday, hopefully everybody got something out of the day.

Today we will have a quick look at the 1983 Cox Plate. The race was won by a very underrated galloper named Strawberry Road.

During his four-year-old season, Strawberry Road who had won the Rosehill Guineas and the AJC Derby, completed a very rare treble. The stallion resumed with a breathtaking victory in the now Group One 1200m Manikato Stakes. This race is now run and won on Cox Plate eve, so it is unlikely that a horse will ever complete this double again. After winning the Manikato, Strawberry Road won the 1600m Feehan at Moonee Valley. Progressing from a Group One 1200m to a Group Two 1600m is a great feat, but then to also go on to win the Cox Plate is extraordinary. The Moonee Valley racing club still has just the three major races, and for one horse to win them all in one season is ridiculous. Here is the Cox Plate win, have a look how easily Strawberry Road eases into contention and then breaks away. This is how you would like them to win all the time!

After the Cox Plate win, story of Strawberry Road truly developed in a story of international triumph. The bay colt that began his career in Queensland raced on to fame and fortune in six countries. Before his Cox  Plate win, he was named the Queensland Horse of the Year for 1982-83, then after his Plate win was named Australian Horse of the Year in 1983. Abroad the stallion was the Champion Older Horse in Germany in 1984 and represented the United States in the 1984 Japan Cup.

Strawberry Road was bred in New South Wales by J. Pantos and G. Georgopoulos and had a number of owners in a racing career that spanned six seasons. He was a multi-million dollar winner of 17 races from 1100 metres to 2500 metres. His Group 1 victories were the A.J.C. Derby, M.V.R.C. Cox Plate, Queensland Derby and Rosehill Guineas in Australia, and the French Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the German Grosser Preis von Baden. He was also placed at this highest level of racing in the USA Breeders’ Cup Turf Stakes, the Santa Anita Luis Rey Stakes, the Belmont Turf Classic and the Washington D.C. International Stakes.

Queensland trainer Doug Bougoure prepared Strawberry Road before a half share in the horse was purchased by Ray Stehr and John Singleton. The horse was transferred to Sydney trainer John Nicholls and sent to France to take on the worlds best in the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe. He finished a gallant fifth after charging to the lead at the top of the long Longchamp straight. Here is the Arc run…

Strawberry Road then commenced barnstorming raids across the Northern Hemisphere for new owner Daniel Wildenstein, competing with distinction every time he stepped out. Plans to return him to Australia for a stud career never eventuated, and he was sold to prominent US owner Allan Paulson with a view to standing him at Brookside Farm in Kentucky.

Strawberry Road transmitted his ability and will to win to his progeny and has sired more than 37 Stakes winners to the year 2005. They include six Group 1 winners and four champions. He was the third on the USA Sires Premiership in 1998. His sire sons include the successful Queensland-based stallion Admiralty (USA), and his daughters are proving to be outstanding broodmares.

It has been a while since we have seen one as good as Strawberry Road.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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The Japanese are coming

aturffascination:

Hey everyone. Bande has been scratched and The Offer is in grave doubt. Here is the updated tips

Originally posted on A Turf Fascination:

Hello everyone

Wisdom

This week’s wisdom is based on the punt and it has to do with the Caulfield Cup. Over the last five years, the first four in the Caulfield Cup has average $20,000. My advice is to box about 7 horses and try and get 5%. Just choose the six or seven (or 8) that you like, box them all in a first four for how ever much you can afford, and hope a 50-1 chance wins. The eight that A Turf Fascination will be boxing this year are 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 19. This is a good system and can prove very profitable for only a mid sized investment. Getting a first four is easier than getting a quaddie, because you only have to get one winner and three losers!

Punt

Caulfield only and a crack at every race.

Race 1.

Can’t separate 2…

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The Japanese are coming

Hello everyone

Wisdom

Before reading my wisdom, please buy my book. You just click on the picture over there and pay your $7. Easy!

This week’s wisdom is based on the punt and it has to do with the Caulfield Cup. Over the last five years, the first four in the Caulfield Cup has average $20,000. My advice is to box about 7 horses and try and get 5%. Just choose the six or seven (or 8) that you like, box them all in a first four for how ever much you can afford, and hope a 50-1 chance wins. The eight that A Turf Fascination will be boxing this year are 1, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, 19. This is a good system and can prove very profitable for only a mid sized investment. Getting a first four is easier than getting a quaddie, because you only have to get one winner and three losers!

Punt

Caulfield only and a crack at every race.

Race 1.

Can’t separate 2. Azkadella and 3. Berimbau. The former is $2.50 and the later is 7.50. One is in tremendous form (the 2) and the other was a really nice to-year-old that looks to have made the step to three-year-old company. Back the 2 to win and the 3 each way.

Race 2.

In this race the thinking is around whether 3. Liberation will go straight or not. He better because if he does not he might get a couple of pretty substantial parts of his anatomy removed. He is worth the gamble at $10. Also include 1. Tudor who is backing up after a run on Wednesday and 13. Rib Eye who is at 50-1.  The other good chance is 6. Careless. Back 3 and 6 to win (both close to $10) and 1 and 13 each way. It is a lot of bets, but if anyone of the four win it is profit. The top selection is Liberation.

Race 3.

The major tip here is 3. Maastricht. She looks hard to beat. For the multiples include 8. Set Square, 11. Tears of Joy and even the 1 and the 2 if you are having a big tri or something.

Race 4.

No too sure what to do here. The main three are 1. Kumaon, 2. Merion and 13. Crafty. The top weight looks a Derby horse and might be too slow for the 2000m. The 2 is an idoit that does not run straight and the 13 is a filly against the boys. However if one is required (you don’t have to bet in every race!) take the 13 each way.

Race 5. 

Two here both at good odds. 13. Ryker can be forgiven for his last start failure due to the $16 that is on offer for him. He will run well in this then be hard to beat in the Emirates. Also 8. Generalife looks set to run well. He is pretty honest and $6 allows us to take the each way.

Race 6.

Either 4. Catkins or 3. Sweet Idea will win this race. Not exactly sure which one will salute but very confident it will be one of them. Catkins perhaps because she is a grey and in the Hall of Fame.

Race 7.

In a race full of goats, perhaps the best option is to back the two that are at least internationals. They might not be goats whereas the rest of the field have proved themselves to be very slow. 2. Contributer and 12. Noble Protector are the imports and if they are even half decent then they will be able to beat this field. Well worth the risk.

Race 8.

7. Shamal Wind is the obvious choice and she deserves to be backed to win. But don’t leave out old 1. Bel Sprinter. He flies fresh and his recent trial was the best of his career. He is a Group One winner at this trip and that form would see him again figure. Give him some thought at $9 but if he does not run in the top three, never mention his name again!

Race 9.

This is the Caulfield Cup and I have never been less confident in a major race. I simply don’t know! The favourite has never been to Caulfield and was beaten at her only try at 2400m, and who knows what to make of all the Waller horses. So here is the advice… back the two Japanese horses 1. Admire Rakti and 5. Bande while having a little saver on 6. The Offer. The Japanese horses are the best stayers in the race. If they have traveled well and are happy then they will take a power of beating. But those are all big ‘ifs.’ Here is the top 8 2014 Caulfield Cup Countdown…

So news just in… Bande has been scratched. Bugger.

7th – Lucia Valentina. Just not too sure she is that good.

6th – 12. Dear Demi. I hate this horse but she is going well.

5th – 9. Junoob. He is going really well.

4th – 6. The Offer. He loves a wet track but with 28 degrees forecast, it looks like he won’t get conditions to suit.

3th – 16. Rising Romance. Beat the favourite at their last meeting over 2400m.

2rd – 19. Brambles. Will be up the front and is in good form.

1st – 1. Admire Rakti. He will be flying home and will give whatever is in front a huge fright. Watch this video…

Delta Blues was wide the whole trip and had zero luck and almost won. Pop Rock went like a drunk and had no idea where he was going and should have won. And by all reports, Bande and Admire Rakti makes these two look like maiden hurdlers.  Yep, back the Japanese.

Race 10.

11. The Messina Nymph. The best of the day and she is at $10.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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A Quick piece on Rising Fast

aturffascination:

All the Caulfield Cup tips and wisdom coming first thing tomorrow morning. In the meantime enjoy a Caulfield Cup style reblog

Originally posted on A Turf Fascination:

Hello everyone

Rising Fast deserves a week of A Turf Fascination posts. But for the meantime we will just show a little piece that details the champs phenomenal spring in 1954. Enjoy…

In 1954, the promising kiwi gelding Rising Fast that was purchased for $650 resumed his career as a five-year-old in the Memsie Stakes. The gelding ran well but was unplaced; he was clearly looking for further. Rising Fast then contested WFA Feehan at Moonee Valley where he was lucky enough to win despite the race still being short of his best distance. He then was unluckily beaten in the Underwood Stakes as the 4-9 favourite ($1.44) favourite. The champ was only beaten by half a head, but people were disappointed as they always are when a short priced favourite gets beaten. However this was the last time for the preparation the bay gelding from New Zealand would lose.

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The Wednesday

Hello everyone

The Wednesday between the Caulfield Guineas and the Caulfield Cup was for many years Thousand Guineas day. There is still a race meeting on this year, but there is no Group One races. However there are still eight races on, and there are some great horses running. Here is a crack at the entire card.

Race 1.

12. Zanteca is the favourite and looks hard to beat. Well worth a bet. Also have a little look at 6. Rawnaq, 1. Shikarpour and 3. Longeron. But the favourite is the bet.

Race 2.

This is an all greys race. These races are usually very hard to do the form on. There will be great odds on offer for 10. Consoling Amy. She always runs pretty well. 1. Beauty Beast has some great form around him and 8. Van Diemens Fire is also worth perhaps a small bet.

Race 3.

4. Kapset. In good form and by a sire that is getting better and better.

Race 4.

14. Dark Thunder. Scratched from Saturday for this and is still at $26. Worth a small bet. 12. Averau is also in nice form and at good odds.

Race 5.

7. Eloping. The best horse in the field and she will be out in front and flying along.

Race 6.

8. Eclar Big Bang and 13. Al Aneed are in good form and are good horses. Both are at generous odds and can be backed.

Race 7.

2. Forever Loved is flying and is the best each way chance for the day. Also have a saver on 9. Suavito. She did not get out of the gates last start, but that problem has been fixed.

Race 8.

Three horses here… two favourites in 6. Pyrrolic and 9. Snow Cover, and a 50-1 outsider in 9. Snow Cover. Back them all!

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

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Sometimes it is better to lose

Hello everyone Sometimes it is better to get rolled in the Caulfield Cup rather than win it. This is in regards to winning the Melbourne Cup 17 days later. A winner of the Caulfield Cup can be and often is penalized and given more weight for the Melbourne Cup than they originally had based on the strength of their Caulfield Cup win. For example Might And Power was originally given 52.5kg for the 1997 Melbourne Cup, but after he won the Caulfield Cup that year by 7.5 lengths, he was given a 3.5kg penalty thus giving him a new weight of 56kg. He won the Melbourne Cup by an inch but would have won by three lengths had he not been re-handicapped. Doriemus won the 1995 Melbourne Cup with 52kg, but he was originally given just 49kg however he won the Caulfield Cup and then was given an additional 3kg penalty. Sometimes the penalty does not fit the win. The maximum penalty is 3.5kg as Might And Power received, yet, Let’s Elope some 6 years earlier, only received a 2.5kg penalty for this effort…

Let’s Elope then won the Melbourne Cup with 51kg which included her 2.5kg penalty. She was absolutely thrown in! Sometimes horses are good enough to win the Melbourne Cup after copping a penalty, but a lot of the time, horses that cop a penalty are not good enough to carry this penalty to victory in the race that stops a nation. Therefore if a trainer / owner only cares about the Melbourne Cup, it often would be better if their horse did not win the Caulfield Cup as to avoid the penalty. Yes the Caulfield Cup is worth over three million bucks, but the Melbourne Cup is worth more than twice that, so you can see why trainers would run their horses in Caulfield Cup, but would not be disappointed to see them run a nice place and avoid the penalty. Here are an example. This is 2004. Elvstroem received a 2.5kg penalty for this win in the Caulfield Cup. Have a look who he beats…

The champion beats Makybe Diva by an inch and cops a 2.5kg penalty. Do you think the Makybe Diva camp were disappointed about losing this race! Here is what happened 17 days later…

Had The Diva had stuck her nose out in the Caulfield Cup then she would have copped the 2.5kg penalty and Elvis would have received no penalty. Would have the result been different 17 days later in the Melbourne Cup had the Diva had an extra 2.5kg and Elvis had 2.5kg less? Yes it would have. Lee Freedman and Glen Boss would have never been so happy to lose a major race by a nose! Good luck and stay tuned.

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