Watch that beer… evil stuff!

Hello everyone

Wisdom

First of all, sorry to all the international readers of A Turf Fascination because this wisdom has to do with Australian Rules Football.

So young Motlop from the Geelong Cats got suspended by his club for having a few beers on Good Friday, four days before his Easter Monday game. First things first… Good Friday is the worst day of the year to start with! No footy or races! Anyway, Young Motlop had a few beers, nothing too bad and his teammates found and suspended him for breaking team rules.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/sport/afl/steve-motlop-embarrassed-by-club-imposed-suspension-for-drinking-at-local-footy-game/story-fnjuhrxq-1227301902147

However, if on the same day (and he most certainly did not) Motlop had of smoked a bit of the old ice or snorted a touch of the old devils dandruff, and tested positive to these or any other drugs, he would have been allowed to play! If he then the next week cracked into some ice and again got caught, he still would not have been suspended. Then if on the next weekend, for the third week in a row, had he have been caught smoking ice, he still would not have been suspended, but he would have to attend some form of counselling.

Yet he has four or five pots and is named and shamed and suspended. Illicit drugs that despite what you see every day, are still illegal are deemed in footy circles as acceptable three times, but a few beers is a big no no. This is bullshit!

Punt

Royal Randwick

Not much idea here as it will be a horrible wet track, so just go easy on these…

2.1. Sarajevo. Will win this in a canter if he handles the wet which he does I think?

5.5. Religify. Would probably win the Hollindale on the Gold Coast, yet he is $3 in this race for goats. Clear best of the day if the track holds together.

6.3. Frespanol. Gai has set this horse for this race. He likes his runs spaced out and he is fresh enough to win this easily.

Flemington

2.2 Petracca. Run a great race last start and probably should have won. Flemington will certainly suit.

4.7. Rawnaq. This goat better win soon or he is out forever!

5.2. Jabali. Beaten at $1.20, then $1.50 but now he his $16. Worth a smal each way bet.

8.15. Price Harada. Looks more like a race horse after having the ultimate Lankan Rupee gear change. He should win this race. Second best of the day.

Gold Coast

A crack at the entire card!

Black type is the order of the day on the Gold Coast

Straight out of the Sydney Autumn and we are already kind of in the Brisbane Winter Carnival. This week the feature meeting is at the Gold Coast, and it has to be said that as punters, we need to be aware that weird stuff happens at this track! It is the most used track in Australia and it is currently a soft track with great drying conditions forecast. This will promote speed lanes. The good lanes might be wide or they might be close to the fence but one thing is for sure, good horses can have horrible luck at this track. But tough, honest horses seem to really thrive at the big meetings at the Gold Coast, so that is where we will be looking. Here goes…

Race 1 – 11:42AM SURFERS PARADISE RSL GUNSYND CLASSIC Three-Years-Old Plate (1800 METRES)

  1. Worthy Cause is coming off a great 4 length win at Doomben. He has never been over a trip anywhere near 1800m, but the way he won last Saturday indicates he should thrive over the extra trip. The colt looks to be hitting form at the right time and $5 is a great bet at level weights from a fair barrier. Good each way chance.

Race 2 – 12:17PM BORDER SECURITY SERVICES GOLD COAST BRACELET 3-Y-O Fillies Plate (1800 METRES)

  1. Bohemian Lily. When Gai sends horses to the Gold Coast you have to pay attention. The Lady Trainer has one of the best strike rates at the track and she knows what kind of horse is required as to win feature races. Bohemian Lily is a former kiwi that has had just the one run in Australia. The step up to 1800m will suit the daughter of O’Reilly and she will be hitting the line hard. $4.40 is on a bit short side but that is just because of the Gai factor, but don’t be surprised if the former kiwi filly is flying home when the whips are cracking.

Race 3 – 12:52PM GOLDCOASTWEBSITES.COM.AU CHAIRMAN’S HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

  1. Index Linked looks well suited here at the 2200m. The first three races are over 1800m, 1800m and 2200m, so at least after this race we should know how the track is playing. Index Linked has had some recent good runs and he always gets better with more racing. He has his share of weight on Saturday, but with the best rider of stayers in the land aboard (G. Boss), and barrier one, the former Euro will get a great run and should be powerful at the end. He is $4.50 in the race only because of his weight. If it was a market based on the best horse he would be even money. He looks exceptional each way value.

Race 4 – 1:27PM BETTER THAN READY SILK STOCKING Fillies and Mares Handicap (1200 METRES)

  1. Espiritu looks the value in the race. She has had nine starts for six wins and three places, she never runs a bad race and the 1200m is her favourite trip. 8. I’ve Got The Looks will be extremely hard to beat but $2.50 looks thin for a bit of a non-winner.

Race 5 – 2:02PM CARLTON DRAUGHT PRIME MINISTER’S CUP (1400 METRES)

  1. Jetstar Lad has always has plenty of ability but he better start doing something as he is almost an eight-year-old. The top two in the weights will be hard to beat, but they are non-winners and $3.80 is too short for both of them. Jetstar Lad is $21 and if he runs his best he will be thereabouts. Worth a small each way bet.

Race 6 – 2:42PM MORETON HIRE KEN RUSSELL MEMORIAL CLASSIC (1200 METRES)

  1. Regatta Rebel looks a future star. She has a perfect barrier, a gun hoop, a terrific trainer and if she runs up to her first-up form she will blow this field away. She will be out in front, she can handle any surface and if she gets to $3 then she is exceptional value.

Race 7 – 3:17PM SMEG VICTORY STAKES (1200 METRES)

  1. Srikandi. This mare is ready to rock and roll. She has had plenty of trackwork, a few trials and jumps outs and she is has never not won over this trip. Just for good measure she is also a winner this track and trip. The value is 8. Cape Kidnappers. This mare rarely runs a bad race; in fact apart from dropping the rider once, she has only missed a place once. She is worth an each way bet with a good win bet on Srikandi.

Race 8 – 3:52PM SKY THOROUGHBRED CENTRAL A.D. HOLLINDALE STAKES (1800 METRES)

This is a weird race. Pornichet can’t get a start which is a shame because he would be the tip. Therefore the bet is 13. Silent Achiever. She rarely runs badly, she is very classy and as long as this race is not simply a tune up race, then she should be running on late. She can perform on any surface and looks set for a great preparation. She is worth some each way thought.

Race 9 – 4:28PM ATTWOOD MARSHALL LAWYERS GOLD COAST GUINEAS (1200 METRES)

  1. Aimee is going to win sooner or later. She has to be the unluckiest filly in the country. She has barrier 18 of 18 and rarely do horses win at the Gold Coast from out there, however she has talent, is a local and is $26. She will be motoring home and with just a tiny bit of luck she might stick her nose out at the right time.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

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Poor old Shane Dye

Hello everyone

Shane Dye’s most famous ride was not one of his big Group One wins, but rather his slaughter job on Veandercross in the 1992 Caulfield Cup…

http://aturffascination.com/2013/06/16/15-wide-and-beaten-a-lip-2/

However, Shane Dye managed to keep the ride somehow and he slightly redeemed himself by winning the Mackinnon…

But what is not widely discussed is the worse slaughter job the champion kiwi hoop did on the gelding in the 1992 Melbourne Cup, just three days after the gelding won the Mackinnon. Have a look at this ride. Not only should have Veandercross bolted in in the Caulfield Cup, but he should have easily beat Subzero in the 1992 Melbourne Cup…

Oh well, just put Veandercross on the pile of champions that were never due to luck. That list is endless!

Good luck and stay tuned.

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Keep the dog away

Hello everyone

The weekend just gone was a real ‘kick the dog’ weekend. A Turf Fascination’s employer Gai Waterhouse lost two Group One races by a combined half lengths and ATF Hall of Fame horse Ecuador who was beaten two inches!

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2015Apr18&VenueCode=NzUyNDAw&RaceNumber=8&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

The Messina Nymph ran a brave third but was well beaten. She was a little disappointing to be honest.

Gregers and Under The Louve also ran placings while Tycoon Tara was 4th.

Trakstar won in Brisbane!!!!!

Then Kansas Sunflower ran a place as well.

So stay with us. We were all over it on the weekend and although we only got two winners, there were plenty of places and now we can leave the unpredictable tracks of Sydney alone and pay attention to QLD and even Warrnambool in the coming weeks.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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And no religion too

Hello everyone

Wisdom

In the 20th – 21st century, has the premise of ‘religion’ ever had a worse time? Yes over the centuries plenty of wars have been fought simply because of religion, but right now not much good is happening in the way of faith. There are at least five Muslim countries stuck in civil wars where one branch of the religion want to kill the other part of the religion because they don’t quite adhere to all the same phrases in a book despite them all having the same god and same messiah.

The question is however directed at America. When Obama says ‘god bless America’ and things like ‘my faith remains unshaken’ do you think he means it? Does a man as smart as Obama really believe that Jesus and God have any impact on his day to day activities? He can’t, but he has to say what he says because if he does not he will be extremely unpopular with the 200 or so million that base their day to day lives on the movements (or lack of) of Jesus. People can of course live how they want and believe what they want, but with IS, and all the problems of Islam in the Middle East and Africa, the Jesus sentiment is only getting stronger in the Christian world. There is a huge fear world wide that instead of these little spot fires of Islamic fundamentalists trying to kill everyone and especially Christians, that maybe there will eventually be an Islam vs Christianity war. Never in the last 100 years have religious tensions been so high and personally it seems weird that not one person on earth can prove God exists, yet 5,000 a day die in his or her name, most violently.

I don’t want to get hit by lightening or cop an Iranian fatwa but every story of concern on proper news bulletins of late has some form of religious base. Tempers are running high. Just this morning on a refugee boat from Libya to Italy, 12 Muslim men threw overboard 12 Christians. Why? Because they were Christians. No other reason. The 12 that went over will never be found. Every day from northern Africa, there are tens of thousands of people trying to get to mainland Europe to escape their religiously war torn countries, then when they arrive, if they do, they want to take the fight with them, rather than escape it.

Everyone is free to believe what they want, but surely religion teaches peace and harmony rather than murder, rape and torture. It can’t be that hard to just get along.

Punt

Ok so I know very little about religion, and some might say even less about the punt, but here it is anyway.

Caulfield

6.6 Tycoon Tara. Good odds and in great form. She is a horse for the future.

9.2. Gregers. Clearly the best horse in this race and only weight will stop her.

10.3. Under The Louvre. Has turned his form around and looks the second best of the day.

Doomben

3.5. Trakstar. Is finding form and the step up in distance will certainly suit.

Morphvttville

5.7. Burgundy Blast. Great race and at good odds, this horse looks great each way value.

6.8. The Messina Nymph. Needs to beat Platelet but maybe she can? $5 to find out.

7.2. Kansas Sunflower. Won well last week and the quick step up is perfect.

Randwick

1.6. Private Secretary. Let’s just hope this wins so we can get off to a good start. It should!

Race 4 – 2:25PM MOËT & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600 METRES)

While a few around town are saying this is a rather weak race, it is a very even race. There are plenty of horses coming off good results and plenty of different formlines. The Sires’ is the traditional lead-up race and it looks as if that is where the strongest form is coming from.

Winner – 8. Passadena Girl. She was the one of the best runs in the Sires’ and although Odyssey Moon finished in front of her, Passadena Girl was taking ground of her late and looked the better run. She will handle the wet or the dry and she looks to have the class to win this easily if things go to plan.

Hardest to beat – 5. Street Rapper. Gai has this colt absolutely flying heading towards this race. In the past, Gai has targeted this race with this type of colt and if any of the others are suspect at the trip, this colt will hold them off easily. He is $10 and can be backed each way with a sense of confidence.

Best long shot – 1. The Barrister. At 1600m last week, this colt won over this track and trip. He will have to have improve should he want to beat this field, but he just might have. The track is no problem, the trip is no problem and he looks a good roughie.

Race 6 – 3:45PM SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400 METRES)

Chautauqua looks a good thing here. His win last start was breathtaking and he to my eye has always looked as if he would be better over 1400m. He has to beat Terravista again and the gun three-year-olds but from barrier one, with the form on the board, he is the best of the day.

Winner – 1. Chautauqua. For the reasons outlined above.

Hardest to beat – 3. Terravista. This ‘best sprinter in the world’ is another who always looked as if he might be better over 1400m. He will take a power of beating and even if he gets rolled, stay aboard as he will be tough to beat in Brisbane.

Best long shot – 5. Rebel Dane. This entire was the favourite in this race last year and now he is $26. He has a good second up record and looks as if he will get a cosy run.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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Wednesday could be a good day.

Hello everyone

Gai Waterhouse looks to have four exceptional chances at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. It can be dangerous tipping at Warwick Farm, especially on a wet track as the horses that are trained there seem to perform well there on a damp surface. However, Gai looks to have really targeted this meeting. She has multiple runners in three different races and two of her most promising, lightly raced three-year-olds are stepping out.

Man of Distinction. Race 2 number 5. $5. Each way chance.

Man of Distinction has had just the two starts to date in his career. He won nicely first up, then he was given a trial to really bring him on. Since he has raced at the same track and trip that he faces on Wednesday and was beaten about three inches. He has the same weight this week and he is fitter and has improved according to the huge amount of mail Gai puts out on her website every day.

Man of Distinction’s last start this track and trip…

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2015Apr08&VenueCode=NTYyMzgw&RaceNumber=6&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=Last400m

Should have won!

Winter Sweet. Race 4 number 10. $4.50. Winning chance.

Gai has three horses in this race with Winter Sweet being the best chance. She has had just the one start and after sitting wide for the entire trip, she still managed to beat a decent field going away by three lengths. If she runs up to this standard she will be very hard to hold out. Perhaps the hardest to beat is the stablemate 11. Swing Sensation. However Winter Sweet looks a very good filly and she is only going to get better.

Winter Sweet’s debut…

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2015Mar14&VenueCode=NDAzMDM5&RaceNumber=7&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=Last400m

Najoom. Race 6 number 1. $5. Best of the day.

This filly could be anything. She unfortunately has the weight to go with this, but she is simply very very good. Her two stablemates in the race should not be able to get near her and the 1300m is just a stepping stone to some great races in the future over the mile. She has had just the three starts and has been very disadvantaged at all three, yet still managed to win two and was narrowly beaten in the other. She should go very close to winning on Wednesday even with the 58.5kg.

Najoom first up…

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2015Mar10&VenueCode=MjQ5MDU0&RaceNumber=2&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=Last400m

Skylimit. Race 7 number 9. $3.10. Winning chance

This colt, like Najoom, could be anything. He has never been headed in a track gallop, trial or race and he apparently has comeback bigger and better than ever. He won on debut despite having no idea what he was doing and he was put straight out after the run, one suspects for perhaps a Stradbroke preparation. This race is a long way from the big dance in QLD, but he just might be that good.

Skylimit on debut. He looks beaten but finds plenty…

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2014Dec03&VenueCode=MTAxNzY0&RaceNumber=3&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

Good luck and stay tuned.

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It’s A Champion

aturffascination:

Now at stud, but well worth another read

Originally posted on A Turf Fascination:

Hello everyone

How good is It’s A Dundeel? Lets explore shall we…

In 2005 the Canterbury Guineas was renamed the Randwick Guineas, and in 1979 the AJC Derby and the Rosehill Guineas were changed from the spring to the autumn. So despite several horses pre 1979 having won the so called triple crown of three-year-old racing, It’s A Dundeel cannot be compare to them because of the changes in the race.

Phar Lap and Tulloch won the Rosehill Guineas and the AJC Derby, but it was when they were in the spring. IAD and Octagonal are the only horses to win the triple crown since the races were moved to the autumn and IAD is the only horse to win the triple crown since it took its current format of the mile Randwick Guineas, the 2000m Rosehill Guineas and the 2400m Derby.

Also. Kingston Town won the Rosehill Guineas and…

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The Races should be run on Saturdays

Hello everyone

The rest of the world

Just back Cape Kidnappers in Brisbane in the last then save a little cash for Liberation at Flemington. Then turn the heads to Randwick.

We now arrive at day two of The Championships. Let’s just hope that the races are run on the day they are planned!

Race 1. Adina Hotels Fernhill Hcp 1600m

Winner – 6. Muzyka. Over 1200m last start this filly came flying from last to run a brave 3rd. The 1600m looks as if it will suit perfectly. Her trial before her debut was also very good.

Hardest to beat – 1. Clash of Clans. This colt won nicely over 1400m and straight after the win, his trainer mentioned that the Fernhill was the target. He will be hard to beat.

Best roughy – 8. Chachapoyas. Not beaten far by Clash of Clans and is twice the price.

Race 2. Mcgrath South Pacific Classic 1400m

Winner – 3. Federal. This gelding can turn the tables on the second pick Ygritte. There is a flip around in the weights between the two horses from the Gosford Guineas and from the perfect barrier, this boy looks close to an each way special.

Hardest to beat – 2. Ygritte. This filly will be tough to beat but only the greats (fillies) can give weight to the boys and beat them.

Best roughy – 5. Redoutable Heart. His first up run was full of merit behind a horse in the open sprint later on the program (Confederate). He can improve sharply.

Race 3. Provincial Championship Final 1400m

As with last week with this race, we have a full field of horses both old and young all meeting from all over NSW with all different formlines. Therefore deciphering this race is no easy task.

Winner – 4. Selectify. In good form against some nice horses and a recent trial will have sharpened the entire right up for this race.

Hardest to beat – 7. Supreme Effort. Big odds but running well

Best roughy – 6. Powerline. Was lucky to win at Gosford but winning form is good form and he is close enough to 50-1 here. Well worth a small each way bet.

Race 4. Girvan Waugh Percy Sykes Stks 1200m

Winner – 9. Sempre Libera. This filly is on the rise whereas many of the others may have already peaked in the Golden Slipper. She is magnificently bred and he last start win was very strong.

Hardest to beat – 2. Lake Geneva. She did run third in the Slipper and apart from English, the form from that race has been flanked. She will be tough to beat and deserves to be the favourite.

Best roughy – 7. Denpurr. Beat Sempre Libera first up and has trialled nicely since.

Race 5. Arrowfield Sprint 1200m

Winner – 1. Scissor Kick. This colt has been freshened up nicely for this race and looks tough to be beat. Make no mistake, this is a tough race and Kuro will be hard to beat, but this colt is still on the rise and he might be anything.

Hardest to beat – 11. Earthquake. It could easily be Kuro, but Earthquake seems like she is back in form. She should have won the Group One at Moonee Valley last start and back in Sydney she will be tough to beat.

Best roughy – 7. Confederate. This gelding has always shown plenty of talent and at $71 he is clearly worth a dollar each way.

Race 6. Seven News Australian Oaks 2400m

The Oaks looks a very even affair with Winx being the favourite. But she can be risked, especially at the trip. The 5,7,9,12 and 13 are all backing up from Monday and will be fitter for their runs. However for mine it is the Zabeel filly who looks the exceptional value. The kiwi top weight will be tough to get past as will the traditional lead up winner Fenway. But weird things can happen in this race and Adrift looks primed.

Winner – 8. Adrift. This Zabeel filly has been aimed at this race for a long time and despite her average form just of late, she has plenty of talent, will eat the 2400m and at close to 20-1 she looks exceptional value.

Hardest to beat – 5. Candelara. On the quick back-up yes, but she won on Monday like a very good filly and she has a champion hoop on and is bred to get the distance. She is another who is at generous odds.

Best roughy – 7. Wine Tales. Looks as if she is looking for a trip and her best is good enough to figure in this great race somewhere.

Race 7. Cellarbrations Queen Of The Turf 1600m

Most people will be in one of three camps. The First Seal camp, the Catkins camp or the Noble Protector camp. For mine, First Seal has done her dash and the fact she is coming back in trip allows her to be risked. Of course she might win by five and she should be in the quaddie, but we can’t back them all, so First Seal looks the one to be left out. The heart says Catkins, the head says Noble Protecter, but the heart it is! Also don’t discount the three Waterhouse runners. There is a sneaky chance Gai has set Cosmic Endeavour, Amanpour and Diamond Drille for this race. They are all at near on 20-1.

Winner – 2. Catkins. It is time for this mare to win a Group One. She is at each way odds, and it is hard to see her missing a place. She will be up the front, will eat the mile and it will take a good mare or filly to get past her.

Hardest to beat – 6. Noble Protector. This mare is flying, she looks a superstar in the making and she deserves to be the favourite. But who won’t be cheering for Catkins!

Best roughy – 1. Cosmic Endeavour. A dual Group One winner and back against her own sex she will be thereabouts at 20-1.

Race 8. Schweppes Sydney Cup 3200m

It looks a one act affair and the one act is not one of the most dominant Melbourne Cup winners ever in Protectionist. It is Hartnell. He beat all these recently and now he gets weight off them. He is the best for the day.

Winner – 6. Hartnell. Looks a special. Beat all these two weeks ago and now he gets weight off them. Best of the day.

Hardest to beat – 2. Dominant. A stayer on the improve and $17 looks overs.

Best roughy – 8. Big Memory. Always runs well.

Race 9. Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m 

Anything can happen here. Criterion, Adelaide, the Japanese or even the former star Fiveandahalfstar. However Contributer is the tip simply because he has the runs on the board and who is to say he can’t improve enough to keep up with the Japanese?

Winner – 1. Contributer. Has the runs on the board, has beaten many of these before and he is almost out to each way value. He won’t miss a place.

Hardest to beat – 9. Adelaide. His two trials have indicate he might be a future jumper, but his performance in the Cox Plate last year indicates he might be one of the best horses in the world. He is a mystery and can’t be left out. Don’t be surprised if he blows the field away.

Best roughy – 12. Royal Descent. Probably not good enough, but she deserves a win. She would be hard to beat in the Queen of the Turf.

Race 10. Drummond Golf Sapphire Stakes 1200m

Winner – 9. Chloe In Paris. This mare has a heap of talent and she was good in the Galaxy. She will be near the lead and that just might be the place to be Saturday.

Hardest to beat – 1. Villa Verde. Looked the winner a furlong out in the Galaxy before condition gave out. She will be fitter for the run.

Best roughy -12. Onemorezeta. Will be up the front with Chloe and is fit for recent runs.

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