The Wednesday Punt

Hello everyone.

Before reading the tips for today, please have a look at this charity thing I am running. I will be doing the paddling and need all of you A Turf Fascinators to dig deep and donate. Maybe you could use some of the money from the $31 quinella we found last Saturday. Or the three winners that were tipped at Caulfield at an average price of close to $7.

A Paddle for Noah

The day is here Ladies and Gentlemen. A Paddle For Noah will take place from 2pm Sunday at the Passage in Port Fairy. Zeb will paddle from the Passage to Deadmans and back and catch a wave for Noah at every surf spot in between. Beer and a sausage sizzle is complementary to all those who have donated (you still have until Sunday to donate). Otherwise a donation on the day will get you a beer and a sausage. Music will be playing, the surf will be pumping and the local rippers will be tearing up the waves – so there is plenty of entertainment for the punters in the two or three hours it will take Zeb to complete the Paddle for Noah.

https://www.facebook.com/events/1563879517245925/?active_tab=posts

Noah is the sweetest little kid. He is flying! He has no idea that he has this bloody disease – he is just a kid, a toddler. Noah needs everyone in this town, and those who are here on holidays to spend what they can and just try to make his battle with Diamond Blackfan Anemia a tiny bit easier. Who knows what can happen? Maybe we can raise the $20,000 and this helps pay for a few more visits to the experts and one of these experts makes a breakthrough on one of the days we have funded! You just never know, so please support the bravest little man in the world – Noah, plus his parents Kristy and Jet. We know that people would donate anyway, but Zeb, along with me (Amy) and Jordan Lockett on tunes and the mic, together with all Jet’s other cousins, will ensure a brilliant arvo eventuates.

capture

Free beer. Free snags. 20 degrees and sun. What a day. Please give generously and we will see you there…

https://www.gofundme.com/apaddlefornoah

Wednesday tips

Rosehill

3.3. Broadside. This horse could be in the Metrop on Saturday he is going that well. Excellent chance today.

6.8. Yuma Desert. A good horse in a bad race with no weight. Looks like a special to me!

Ipswich

1.1 Bearskin. Better than these.

Mornington

3.3. Florida Keys. Improving type.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

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My Time To Shine

Hello everyone

Wisdom

Make no mistake, both Mrs Turf and the chief historical adviser at A Turf Fascination worship the ground that Paul McCartney walks on. Well perhaps the ground he walked on in the ‘1960s. It is time to give up Paul. Simple as that. You were in The Beatles, the undisputed greatest band in the history of sound, and now your vocal chords have gone and you are on television doing crap that is not good!

A year or so ago, Paul made his way into Nirvana, A Turf Fascination’s other favourite all-time band. This could have been great, but it was bloody terrible. Cobain would have been pissing himself laughing in his grave…

Come Paul and come on Grohl! If you are going to try and reunite Nirvana, there is no one better to fill in for Cobain than McCartney, but at least play Nirvana songs! Bloody McCartney, always looking for a quick buck, but when you get married and divorced a couple a times each year, not even one of the Beatles can keep ahead of the Alimony payments.

This is how Paul McCartney should spend his days. Kicking back with Obama watching Grohl play his songs…

Or watching youtube clips of past glory. This is sensational stuff…

You were the greatest Paul, once upon a time. In fact you will remain the greatest, it is not too late, but fairdinkum, do you need to be on reality television like a common moron?

Remember Donald Trump is a reality star!

The McCartney I know would have whacked that judge wanker with the bass, stole his drugs and relaxed with his best mate while causally penning one, two or three of the greatest records of all time.

In a perfect world, my hero Paul McCartney will stick to playing his own songs, stop marrying chicks who want his money, stop appearing on the devils channel (any reality tv anywhere in the world) and stop bloody hanging out with deadbeats like Kanye West.

Shape up Paul. It is not too late!

Punt

Rosehill

1.4. More To Gain. On the back up and you always get better odds about horses that aretrained out of the city.

5.2. Divine Prophet. Team Hawkes is taking an easy option here. This horse should be in Melbourne. Also have $1 a win on 4. Thronum. He look good getting out of the pool this morning…

thronum1

7.1. First Seal. She was once better than Winx! Her recent trial was the best of her career and just for the old cherry on top, back her and throw 2. Tycoon Tara and 10. Dixie Blossom in with First Seal in a quinella.

8.7. Caped Crusader. This gelding is flying and this is a very shallow Group 2 race. He normally has upwards of 60kg and this week he is almost on the minimum.

Caulfield

1.4. Super Cash. The trainer might be a bit of a weirdo, but this is a good horse that is reportedly flying.

2.3. Almandin. Lloyd Williams sacked Damien Oliver for life when Oliver was suspended for backing a horse. Three years later Oliver is back on a Williams horse. It must be a good one.

4.3. Pay Up Bro. Our old mate has won his last two, and I recon he is a sneaky Caulfield Cup chance. He will have to win this, then next week to get in.

5.11. Leotie. The best filly in the race and if she had a good barrier she would be a moral. It won’t be easy, but she looks a huge each way chance.

6.1. Sacred Elixir. When this horse did this last start in a Group 1, I thought he just might be a future champion. He has one of the most efficient strides I have ever seen…

7.2. Xtravagant. One more chance. Any horse that can do this in a Group 1 race and is $10 deserves another go…

Also have a little bet on 16. Mr Individual.

8.11. Lucia Valentina. I simply think Black Heart Bart is a false favourite and won’t run the trip. This mare likes a wet track which she won’t get, but she might just be too good for her rivals here.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

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English

Hello everyone

Punt

Hi guys, sorry, no time for wisdom today – the form took hours to do! He we go. This is what I am backing on Saturday…

Randwick

2.10. Fabrizio. On the back-up and drops in weight. Each way.

3.1. Russian Revolution. Too fast for these!

4.6. Global Glamour. I am sure his filly is a star.

Race 5, 6 and 7.

Take an all-up multi 5.1 Hartnell into 6.8. Winx into 7.4. English. It should pay about $4 and all three look certainties.

8.8. Tsaritsa. Bad ride last time. Will improve sharply.

Caulfield

2.7. Barthelona. Star in the making.

6.2. Miss Promiscuity. Should have top weight but doesn’t. Thrown in!

7.4. Keen Array. 2nd best of the day.

Race 8. The Naturalism.

Back 3. Excess Knowledge, 4. Real Love and 15. Gabella. Put them in a quinella also.

9.2. He’s Our Rokkii. Best of the day.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

 

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Wet wet wet

A Turf Fascination

Hello everyone

Betting on wet tracks is bloody hard as we all saw yesterday. Disregard all the form yesterday should the tracks in Sydney dry heading towards the Epsom and so on.

Weird things happen on wet tracks. Please enjoy the below videos of average horses winning Group One races due to the state of the tracks…

These are all pretty average horses that won only due to a wet track. The lesson… when it is wet just watch or back horses with the word ‘Zabeel’ somewhere on their pedigree chart.

Good luck and stay tuned.

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Don’t Complain – Vote!

Hello everyone

Wisdom

People like me – people of a certain age who follow politics closely still have vivid memories of the 2000 election — horror memories, and not just because the man who lost the popular vote somehow ended up in office, but also because George W. Bush fulfilled plus more all of our dooms day predictions. Trump would be at least 15 times worse.

You see, George W. Bush, was dishonest in a way that was unprecedented in U.S. politics. Most notably, he proposed big tax cuts for the rich while insisting, in raw denial of arithmetic, that they were targeted for the middle class. These campaign lies gave a great indication of what would happen during his administration — an administration that, let us not forget, took the world into an unwinnable war on false pretences before creating the new Great Depression.

Yet throughout the campaign most media coverage gave the impression that Mr. Bush was a bluff, straightforward idiot, while portraying Al Gore — whose policy proposals added up, and whose criticism of the Bush plan were completely accurate — as slippery and dishonest. Mr. Gore’s mendacity was supposedly demonstrated by trivial anecdotes, none significant, some of them simply false. Gore unfortunately said somewhere back in time that he ‘invented the internet’ which is not true, and despite this being a trivial issue, Bush would not let it go and his supporters followed.  Sound familiar? One candidate can be a gun promoting, war hungry, Russian loving, racist / sexist and get away with it, while Hillary has never been proved of any wrong doing but is somehow untrusted? “You didn’t delete some emails!” Who cares!

Right now like many others, I have the sick, sinking feeling that Bush 15.0 is hovering over our heads! It’s happening again but strangely George Bush senior and junior refused to attend the Republican Convention (they are the only two living Republican Presidents), nor will they endorse Trump. They may not be as stupid as they would have us believe?

A golf club house in Victoria is a long way from Washington D.C, however the chat in these parts is all about how each candidate is as bad as each other. When I hear this sort of stuff I bite my tongue because you can’t change people’s minds, but it does demonstrate the non-understanding of the candidates in this election.

True, there aren’t many efforts to pretend that Donald Trump is a model of honesty. But it’s hard to escape the impression that he’s being graded on a curve. If he manages to read from a TelePrompter without going off script, he’s being presidential! Any idiot in the world can read politically scripted words on a television screen.  If Trump seems to suggest that he wouldn’t round up all 11 million undocumented immigrants right away, he’s moving into the mainstream. And many of his multiple scandals, like what appear to be clear payoffs to state attorneys general to back off investigating Trump University, get remarkably little attention.

Meanwhile… we have the presumption that anything Hillary Clinton does must be corrupt, most spectacularly illustrated by the increasingly bizarre coverage of the Clinton Foundation? What the fuck is this about?

Step back for a moment, and think about what that foundation is about. When big President Bill Clinton left office, he was a popular, globally respected figure. America was devastated when he left and was replaced with Bush. What should he have done with that reputation? Raising billions of dollars for a charity that saves the lives of poor children sounds like a pretty reasonable course of action. And the Clinton Foundation is, by all accounts, a big force for good in the world. For example, Charity Watch, an independent watchdog, gives it an “A” rating — better than the American Red Cross.

Now, any operation that raises and spends billions of dollars creates the potential for conflicts of interest. You could imagine the Clintons using the foundation as a slush fund to reward their friends, or, alternatively, Hillary Clinton using her positions in public office to reward donors. So it was right and appropriate to investigate the foundation’s operations to see if there were any improper quid pro quos. As deadbeats in the media and at the pub like to say, the sheer size of the foundation “raises questions.”

But nobody seems willing to accept the answers to those questions, which are, very clearly, “no.”

So I would urge Americans 1. To bury their guns and 2. To ask whether they are reading and discussing facts or simply engaging in innuendo. If reports about a candidate metnion how something “raises questions,” creates “shadows,” or anything similar, be aware that these are all too often mis-leading words used to create the impression of wrongdoing out of thin air.

And here’s a pro tip – a tip from a 34 year old Australia! The best ways to judge a candidate’s character are to look at what he or she has actually done, and what policies he or she is proposing. Mr. Trump’s record of shafting students, stiffing contractors and more is a good indicator of how he would act as president; Mrs. Clinton’s clothing style, donations to charity and body language are not!

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/donald-trump-scandals/474726/

In other words, focus on the facts. America and the world can’t afford another election tipped by innuendo.

Punt

There are Group 1 races in both Sydney and Melbourne this week, so lets have a crack at all races on both cards.

Rosehill

Race 1.

Not real sure here. I am going to back 7. Longkissgoodnight a win and leave it at that.

Race 2.

3. Dubaiinstyle looks a special. He is on the back-up and has the best jockey in the world aboard.

Race 3.

The top weight 1. Sir Bacchus is a mate of mine, and he will probably win, but his big weight and $2.50 price tag don’t add up. Back him if you like him be all-means, but if looking for another one have a look at 3. Caped Crusader. Also 10. Quantrill is half a chance at 20-1.

Race 4.

5. Moss My Nme and 12. Fuel both at $10 look good chances.

Race 5.

The main bet on 2. Sir John Hawkwood but I am also including 7. Get On The Grange at 30-1 and 12. Rules Girl at 200-1!

Race 6.

This is a Group 1 race that no filly has ever won, so I am scrapping all them! 2. El Divino is looking for a mile but can win at 15-1. 4. Divine Prophet is the major bet a win, nd don’t leave out 6. Thronum at 50-1 on the each way.

Race 7.

Old Mate 1. Rebel Dane has a chance but the major bet is 5. Counterattack. He is a special!

Race 8.

Not full of confidence here. 1 Pearls rarely runs a bad race and 9. Fine Mist is a grey.

Race 9.

13. No Bad Blood is 40-1 but has half a chance. 1. Fabrizio is a tough gelding that ticks all the boxes. Back both with small bets.

Flemington

Race 1.

7. O’Lonera. Horrible race so just back this one. Will be leading at some stage.

Race 2.

1. Missrock beat a horse named Prompt Response 1st up last time. Prompt Response is a star in the making. Also have a look at 2. Flying Jess at 50-1. Worth the old $1 each way.

Race 3.

12. Zunbaqa is the major bet. The dangers are 9. Urban Ruler and 6. Detective.

Race 4.

3. Tashbeeh is a special. 4. Riziz is the value runner at 20-1.

Race 5.

4. Archivesis the value, but 1. Defcon will be the hardest to beat. Maybe back both?

Race 6.

2. Xtravagant. I believe the hype. This horse might just be a champion. 4. Sir Moments is good value at 30-1.

Race 7.

Black Heart Bart can get stuffed! I am sik of him, but he will probably win. 5. Jacquinot Bay is going well and worth a bet at 30-1. 8. AlpineEagle will win one day so back him also.

Race 8.

The top two weights are the way to go. 1. Badawyia and 2. Don’t Doubt Mamma. Both are $7 or so.

Race 9.

11. Gabella is a special. She ia a gun and a grey to boot! Also consider 4. Big Memory. He always races well this time of year.

Good lcuk and stay tuned.

 

 

 

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Get that bloody Ark built mate

Hello everyone

Not the easiest weekend on the punt coming up. Randwick is already a heavy ten and the radar looks like this…

Capture

Have you ever noticed that when you are in the club house waiting to tee off and there is a bit of rain around, some old bloke always says ‘oh, there’s nothing on the radar!’? So you play despite your instincts and it pisses with rain!

Then at Moonee Valley the rail is out 3m which means a one lane leader highway.

But we are a tipping site so here goes…

Randwick

Race 4.

12. Coming In Hot is proven on the wet, he is by a sire in Snippetson that produces mud larks and he is in good form. And he is $34. Best of the day! But also back 9. Vella Lonchick who too is $34.

5.5. Tsaritsa. Good horse.

6.12. Global Glamour. This filly is a star. This was her debut  and it was on a wet track…

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2016Jan30&VenueCode=MTA0Nzk2&RaceNumber=1&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

The horse that ran 3rd Lord Macau has been nominated for the Melbourne Cup!

Also have a saver on 5. Bacarella at $16 and even $1 each way on I’m Imogen.

9.4. Hidden Pearl. Qld visitor and they always run well in Sydney on wet tracks.

Even money Randwick will be called off!

Moonee Valley

2.5. Raw Impulse. The best horse in the race and the 1500m track record holder. This race is 1600m but that suits even better. 2nd best of the day.

5.2. Furnaces. Almost beat that grey gelding here one day.

6.13. Athena Lass. Will be leading around the turn and that might be enough to win.

Race 7.

Either 3. Voodoo Lad or 4. Keen Array. I can’t decide. Both are $4 so back both.

Race 8. The Dato

12. Miss Rose de Lago will sit outside The Cleaner and hopefully can power past. 6. Excess Knowledge is not Fiorente, but he is close and might yet be as good. He will run a huge race here. Fiorente won this race on his way to the Melbourne Cup.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

 

 

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There Are a Few Around Today

Hello everyone

Punt

Here is some mail for today’s racing throughout Australia.

Balaclava 

2.12. Northern Lass. I like this horse.

7.1. Daytona Grey. Every time I have tipped this horse he has won! Not as confident today.

8.2. Big Memory. Horrible barrier but a good place chance.

Sandown

6.4. Electric Fusion. Not confident but it is the best chance for this old timer for some time.

7.2. Pay Up Bro. I still think this horse is a gun. But fair dinkum, he has to start doing something!

Canterbury

1.1. Paragon. 62kg, but the seven slowest horses in Australia are in this race. This horse is probably the 50th slowest. Good value!

4.2. Glenall. Yes, yes, yes. Best for the day.

6.6. Top Me Up. Good colt, but like most of the tips today, he better start doing something soon or he is out!

Sunshine Coast

5.4. Kubis

7.3. Gouldian. 2nd best of the day.

Good luck and stay tuned.

 

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